Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 02 2023 - 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin on Saturday and Great Basin/Northern Intermountain
Region on Sunday...

...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central
Plains on Saturday, extending into Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

Moisture streaming northward over Northwestern Mexico and upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, southeastern Nevada, and extreme
Southeastern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

On Sunday, moisture and upper-level energy will move northeastward over
parts of the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain Region. The area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will also move northeastward
over northwestern Utah, southeastern Idaho, and northwestern Wyoming.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin/Northern Intermountain
Region from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

In addition, an upper-level low over Northern California and Oregon will
create rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on
Saturday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Central Gulf Coast and tropical
moisture streaming northward over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms over the region through Monday.

Furthermore, gusty wind, low relative humidity, and dry fuels have
prompted the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Central Plains on Saturday. On Sunday, the gusty wind, low relative
humidity, and dry fuels will extend into parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley, prompting the SPC to have an Elevated Risk of fire weather over
parts of the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php