Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 05 2023 - 00Z Thu Sep 07 2023

...Much above average, near record-tying/breaking heat continues for much
of the central/eastern U.S. following the holiday weekend...

...Heavy rain and some severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday for the Upper
Midwest as a cold front ushers in relief from the heat...

...More seasonable, tranquil conditions for the West after a cool and wet
weekend...

Upper-level ridging will remain in place over much of the central/eastern
U.S. heading into the work week, continuing the much above average and in
some cases record-tying/breaking heat seen over the weekend. Starting in
the Northeast, highs will range between the mid- to upper 80s in New
England, the low to mid-90s in the northern Mid-Atlantic, and the upper
90s for the southern Mid-Atlantic. Many near record-tying/breaking
temperatures are forecast. Texas and the Southern Plains will continue to
be plagued by the heat as well, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Overnight lows will also be well above average, with many locations
remaining in the 70s overnight, providing little relief from the heat.

One more day of hot temperatures is expected Tuesday for the Upper
Midwest, where record-breaking temperatures were seen over the weekend, as
well as the Great Lakes southwest into the Central Plains, with highs into
the low to mid-90s. However, relief is on the way, with an upper-level
wave approaching from the west helping to drive a strong cold front
eastward across the region. The cold front will push through the Northern
Plains on Tuesday with highs falling into the 60s. Highs will drop into
the 60s for the Upper Midwest and the 70s/80s for the Great Lakes into the
Central Plains Wednesday. The cold front will also bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms for the Upper Midwest south to the Middle
Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley
Wednesday. Some of these storms may be severe on Tuesday for the Upper
Midwest, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) for the threat of some large hail and damaging winds.
One spot that will be more seasonable, at least temperatures wise, will be
from the Lower Mississippi Valley east into the Southeast and Florida,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak upper-level disturbance
will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-South Tuesday
with additional storms expected ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, with
some locally heavy rainfall possible.

In the West, some locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns will
remain through the rest of Monday evening for portions of the Northern
Rockies/adjacent High Plains with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) in place. However, following the departure of the upper-level
wave to the east, conditions will remain relatively dry across the region
with temperatures moderating following a cool weekend. Highs Tuesday will
generally be in the 70s for the Pacific Northwest, coastal California,
Great Basin, and Rockies; the 80s for the central California valleys; and
the 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest. Highs will climb around 5-10
degrees warmer on Wednesday to near average levels. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php