Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 AM EDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Valid 12Z Tue Sep 05 2023 - 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023 ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday... ...There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday... ...Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains on Tuesday... A front over the Upper Midwest will move eastward to the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday. On Tuesday, the system will create showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Mississippi Valley roughly southwestward to the Southern Plains. The front will also produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin, and extreme northwest Michigan. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. On Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the front moves eastward, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of Michigan, most of Indiana, western Ohio/Kentucky/Tennessee, northeastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Moreover, upper-level energy and a developing front over the Northern Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies overnight Wednesday. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging extending from the Great Lakes to the Northeast will promote hot temperatures over the region, prompting Heat Advisories over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. In addition, the hot temperatures will continue over parts of the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. The hot temperatures will continue over portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday into Thursday. Lastly, smoke from wildfires in West-Central Canada will reduce air quality over parts of the northern High Plains, prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php