Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 06 2023 - 00Z Fri Sep 08 2023

...Severe thunderstorms expected tonight over parts of the Upper Midwest,
the Ozarks and parts of northeastern Oklahoma...

...Record breaking heat wave intensifies across the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic...

...Canadian wildfire smoke impacts parts of the Northern/Central Plains...


A shortwave trough will initiate thunderstorm activity across parts of the
Mississippi Valley tonight. The Storm Prediction Center issued two
separate Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorm areas for the period ending
tomorrow morning. The first area is over eastern Minnesota, northwestern
Wisconsin and western U.P. of Michigan. The second Slight Risk area
extends from northeastern Oklahoma through the Ozarks and into central
Missouri. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary
severe weather threats through tonight.

The eastern U.S. ridge and amplifying Midwest trough will support the
ongoing heat wave across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
High temperatures in the 90s and 100s will represent 15-25 degree
departures from normal, while low temperatures in the 60s and 70s will
also be 15-25 degrees above normal. Anomalously high temperatures will tie
or break numerous records across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during
this period. The lack of overnight relief from the daytime heat will pose
a particular risk for those without adequate cooling and/or hydration.
Heat Advisories are in effect from the interior Northeast down into
northern Virginia. Conditions should improve on Friday with the passage of
a strong cold front. Heat Advisories are also in effect for parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley where anomalous heat is
expected to intensify through the rest of the work week.

Relatively zonal flow aloft combined with easterly winds at the low levels
will allow for the advection of Canadian wildfire smoke across the
Northern Plains and down into Nebraska. Air Quality Alerts are in effect
for the High Plains of Montana and Wyoming, most of Nebraska and
northwestern Minnesota.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php