Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 07 2023 - 00Z Sat Sep 09 2023

...Severe Weather possible across portions of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

...Excessive Heat potential for parts of the Desert Southwest, Southern
Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...

...Canadian wildfire smoke will impact much of the Northern/Central Plains
and parts of the Lower Missouri River Valley...

A slow moving cold front will be the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the Midwest down to the Southern Plains tonight. The
convective activity moves into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday
where some areas, particularly over the interior Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic may experience severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction
Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for this area on
Thursday with the potential for locally damaging wind gusts and some hail.
Gusty winds and hail may also occur over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and ArkLaTex regions on Thursday. Guidance is a bit uncertain
regarding the evolution of the synoptic pattern over the East on Friday.
Some models suggest a splitting of energy and some models suggesting an
amplification of the upper trough over the East. The result of this is a
dispersed picture of where the axis of heaviest precip will occur on
Friday. The current mean solution is for some splitting which will result
in scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms across the East Coast with
some parts of the interior Northeast and the northern Florida Atlantic
Coast potentially receiving heavy rainfall.

The slowly approaching trough and surface cold front moving through the
Midwest will continue drawing up anomalous warmth from the south into the
East Coast through Thursday. High temperatures in the 80s and 90s will be
10-20 degrees above average for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile,
lows in the 60s and 70s will be 15-25 degrees above average and allow for
little relief from the daytime heat, especially for those without adequate
heating and hydration. An upper-level ridge will support increasing heat
concerns in the Southwest and Southern Plains heading into this weekend.
Widespread high and low temperature records will be tied or broken over
the next couple of days across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi
Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the next few days. Canadian
wildfire smoke will spread out across the Northern/Central Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday. Air Quality Alerts are in
effect for eastern Wyoming/Colorado, much of Nebraska and Minnesota.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php