Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 07 2023 - 12Z Sat Sep 09 2023

... On Thursday, there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...

...There are Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Heat Advisories over the
Northeast on Thursday...

...Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley, and Maine on Thursday...

On Thursday, a front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains will move eastward
to the Eastern Sea Board and Gulf Coast by Saturday. The system will
create showers and thunderstorms from the Northeast to the Eastern Gulf
Coast on Thursday. The front will also produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, and
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/Central
Appalachians through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues. As the front
moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts
of Southern New England to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern
New England to the northern Mid-Atlantic from Friday into Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes. Once again, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the
Northeast southward to the Southeast on Friday.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, a weak front extending from the Northern Plains to
the Southern Plains will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over
the area with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition,
another slow-moving front over the Northern Rockies will move eastward to
the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Saturday. The boundary
will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies
late on Thursday. On Friday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand
into the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains overnight Friday into
Saturday.

On Friday, a wave of low pressure over the Southern plains will add in,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of northeastern
Texas and extreme southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from
Friday into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Moreover, smoke from wildfires in West-Central Canada will reduce air
quality over parts of the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley,
prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area. Additionally, wildfire smoke
over Eastern Canada will drift into Maine, starting Air Quality Warnings
over Maine.

Lastly, upper-level ridging will linger over parts of the Northeast on
Thursday. Unfortunately, the hot temperatures will remain over New
England, prompting Heat Advisories over the area. In addition, an
upper-level high will return to Texas on Thursday, aiding in developing
hot temperatures over the region, prompting Heat Advisories and Excessive
Heat Warnings over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. The hot
temperatures will continue over the area through Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php