Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023 - 12Z Sun Sep 10 2023

...Severe storms possible today across portions of the Northeast, Mid
Atlantic, and from the Red River to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts
...

...Dangerous heat continues across parts of the Northeast, south-central
U.S., and the Southwest...

...Increasing chance for heavy rain across portions of the Southeast on
Saturday...

A cold front will continue to advance slowly east across the eastern U.S.,
focusing rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the period.  Storms
that develop across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today may become
severe, with hail and damaging winds possible.  In addition to the severe
weather threat, some areas may see locally heavy rainfall amounts, with
isolated flash flooding possible.  Albeit a few degrees cooler from
previous days, temperatures will remain unseasonably warm ahead of the
front.  Heat advisories remain in effect today for portions of the
Northeast, including the New York City metro and parts of southern New
England, where heat indices will once again climb well into the 90s. 

The front is expected to make little forward progress into the weekend. 
While the potential for strong to severe storms is expected to diminish,
the threat for heavy rainfall is forecast to increase for some areas,
especially for the southern Appalachians and Piedmont, as a slow-moving
upper disturbance interacts with moisture along and ahead of the front.

Farther to the west, storms developing this morning across eastern Kansas
and Oklahoma into the Ozark region are expected to drop south, with some
intensification possible as this activity moves toward the Gulf Coast
later today.  Additional storms may develop near the Red River and track
south across eastern Texas later today as well.  Storms that develop
across this area will have to the potential to produce hail and damaging
winds. 

Near and west of this activity, an upper-level high will persist,
supporting well-above normal temperatures across much of the south-central
U.S. today and record-breaking heat across much of Texas today and into
the weekend.  Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories cover much of
Texas and portions of Oklahoma and Louisiana, where heat indices may reach
above 110F in some locations.

Portions of the Southwest will remain hot as well, with temperatures
expected to climb a few degrees further as the upper high shifts farther
west over the weekend.  An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued this
weekend for portions of southern Arizona and southern California, where
temperatures in the lower deserts may climb into the 110s.

Farther to the north, a system will bring showers and storms followed by
cooler weather as it moves from the northern Rockies into the High Plains
today and the northern to central Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday.  

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php