Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 11 2023 - 00Z Wed Sep 13 2023

...Unsettled weather and scattered flash flood chances exist across parts
of the central/southern Plains and Four Corners region over the next few
days...

...Threat of locally heavy rainfall continues across the Northeast tonight
before the next round of showers and thunderstorms enter on Tuesday...

...Cooler and more fall-like temperatures to overspread much of the
central United States by early this week...

A cold front currently stretching from the Midwest to the central High
Plains is forecast to push south and east through early this week,
spreading rainfall chances and cooler temperatures throughout much of the
Nation's Heartland. Thunderstorms may turn severe through tonight across
parts of the central and southern High Plains, including a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms from southwest Kansas to the Texas
Panhandle. Additionally, heavy rain may lead to instances of flash
flooding over a similar region. The isolated-to-scattered heavy rain
threat shifts south into Texas by Monday, with the wet weather pattern
expected to linger for several days over central and northern portions of
the state. Farther west, a consistent flow of Pacific moisture into the
Southwest will help fuel shower and thunderstorm chances, which could
produce scattered flash flooding over northwest New Mexico on Tuesday.

A lingering stationary front over the East Coast continues to spark
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the southern Appalachians to New
England today. The greatest threat associated with these storms through
tonight is anticipated to be associated with heavy rain. Slow-moving
thunderstorms with plentiful atmospheric moisture content to work with
will be capable of producing a few inches of rainfall within a short
period of time. Flood Watches remain in effect across much of West
Virginia and the central Appalachians, with a Slight Risk (2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall extending from southwest Virginia to western Maine. Be
sure to remain weather aware in these regions and never drive through
flooded roadways. Isolated downpours may linger across New England and the
Northeast on Monday, before the next round of unsettled weather enters on
Tuesday along with a stronger cold front.

After one final day of potentially record-breaking heat across the
Southwest and southern Texas today, cooler temperatures are expected to
begin the new workweek. Elsewhere, a taste of fall is in the forecast as
below average temperatures overspread the central U.S. through Tuesday.
Highs into the 70s and widespread lows in the 50s and upper 40s are
expected for much of the central/northern Plains, Midwest, and Upper Great
Lakes. Slightly above average temperatures are likely to remain across the
Southeast, Gulf Coast, and northern Great Basin for this time period.
     
Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php