Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 11 2023 - 12Z Wed Sep 13 2023

...Decreasing temperatures with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms expected across the Southwest early this week...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain expected across portions
of the southern Plains today...

...Unsettled weather with heavy rain and flooding possible across portions
of the Northeast today...

Temperatures across the Southwest and southern Texas will remain-above
normal, but begin to cool as the upper-level high responsible for the
recent record-breaking heat retreats south.  Temperatures across much of
the Southwest will return to near seasonal temperatures by midweek. 
Increasing moisture, with contributions from the remnants of tropical
cyclone Jova, will support an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms.  These storms may produce heavy rainfall amounts, with
localized flash flooding possible.

Farther east, a surface cold front currently extending from near the Great
Lakes back through the southern Rockies will continue to push farther
south and east, bringing much cooler air to much of the central U.S.
through the early part of the week.  Ahead of the front, thunderstorms are
expected to develop, which may become strong to severe, producing large
hail and damaging winds across portions of the southern High Plains from
eastern New Mexico to central Texas.  In addition to severe weather
threat, heavy to excessive rain is also possible, especially for portions
of central Texas.

More unsettled weather is forecast for the Northeast today as weak areas
of low pressure moving along a slow-moving front help to focus showers and
thunderstorms across the region.  Storms that develop are expected to be
slow-moving and fueled by ample moisture, raising the potential for heavy
rainfall amounts and possible flash flooding.  A Flood Watch is in effect
for portions of the southeastern New England, where heavy rain is expected
to occur this afternoon and evening.

This front is expected to weaken as it slowly moves offshore by early
Tuesday.  However, potentially heavy rain may return to portions of the
Northeast as the system currently over the Great Lakes strengthens as it
moves east and begins to interact with a resurgence of moisture from the
south.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php