Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 12 2023 - 00Z Thu Sep 14 2023

...Active showers and thunderstorms expected to stretch from the
Southwest, Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes
and Northeast...

...Below average temperatures to continue to press eastward from the mid
section of the nation into the east...

...The recent stretch of record highs across the Southern Plains has come
to an end...


The large scale flow across the Lower 48 will be dominated by an
amplifying mid to upper level trof moving from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into the Upper Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday and eastward
into the Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.  This
upper trof will be pushing a strong frontal boundary eastward over the
next few days and support the potential for active showers and
thunderstorms along the length of the front from portions of the
Southwest, the Southern Plains, into the Mid Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes and Northeast.  Locally heavy rains are possible along and ahead of
this frontal boundary across these regions, with isolated flash flooding
possible.  This may be especially so across portions of the Southern
Plains into portions of the Southwest where the frontal boundary will be
very slow moving and will help to focus the heavy precipitation threat for
a longer period of time.  While the front is expected to be more
progressive for regions to the northeast of the Southern Plains and
Southwest, there have been recent heavy rains over the past week from the
Southern to Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with
additional heavy rain potential possibly producing localized flash
flooding.

In the wake of the above mentioned strong front, below average
temperatures are occurring from portions of the Southern Plains, north
through the Central and Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi
Valley.  These below average temperatures are expected to continue to push
eastward over the next few days into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid
Mississippi Valley region on Tuesday and then into the Ohio Valley,
Tennessee Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by
Wednesday.   Above average temperatures are still expected from South
Texas, eastward along the Gulf Coast and into Florida over the next few
days.  However, these temperatures will not be as hot as the past weeks
temperatures and will bring an end to the recent string of widespread
record high temperatures across the Southern Plains.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php