Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 13 2023 - 00Z Fri Sep 15 2023

...Cool, wet weather with heavy rainfall and flooding possible from the
Southwest to the Southern Plains...

...More heavy rain and possible flooding expected across the Northeast....

...Dangerous surf and rip current conditions developing along the East
Coast...

...Frost Advisories in effect over portions of the Upper Midwest...


Remnant moisture from Jova will continue to spread across the Southwest
and Southern Plains over the next couple of days. Shortwave energy
swinging through the Intermountain West and a surface front oriented
north-south across the Southern High Plains will interact with the
tropical moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorm activity
across the region. Some instances of Flash Flooding are possible from
eastern Arizona into much of central New Mexico tonight, where a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The greatest threat of flash
flooding shifts east into eastern New Mexico and western/central Texas
where a stationary front will act as a focus for convection and
potentially intense rainfall rates. Another Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for that area on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. All of the cloudiness in the area will
impact daytime high temperatures by dropping them to well below average
levels.

A slow moving cold front will focus showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern third of the country through Thursday. This will be supported by
amplified upper-level troughing moving through the Great Lakes. Flash
Flooding threats will increase over the next day or so in the Northeast,
with a Marginal Risk in effect tonight followed by a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall in effect for Wednesday stretching from New Jersey up
into New Hampshire. Chilly air will rush south into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes on the backside of this cold front. Lows in the 30s over parts
of Minnesota and Wisconsin Wednesday morning prompted the issuance of
Frost Advisories for northern portions of the state. There is a
moderate-to-high risk of rip currents along the East Coast as Hurricane
Lee approaches.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php