Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 14 2023 - 00Z Sat Sep 16 2023

....Showers and thunderstorms to drive a scattered heavy rain and flash
flood threat across portions of the Southern Plains into the weekend...

...Unsettled weather continues across the Northeast today, with scattered
flash flooding possible...

...Dangerous surf and rip current conditions to spread north along the
East Coast over the next couple of days; impacts from Lee to arrive over
portions of New England beginning Friday...

The forecast remains on track for unseasonably cool temperatures, showers,
and elevated thunderstorms to continue north of a cold front that has
stalled along the Southern Tier. Current radar and satellite imagery
across the Southwest and Southern Plains show gradually expanding
thunderstorm coverage as a series of upper-level disturbances embedded
within the subtropical jet interact with a moist atmosphere, some of which
 prompted a few Flash Flood Warnings earlier today. This stormy pattern is
expected to continue at least through the end of the work week as the
front lingers in the region, where a Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect today and tomorrow.  Rainfall aside, the
post-frontal airmass will support below average temperatures across much
of the Southern Plains and Great Basin through the beginning of the
weekend, before a warm and dry trend sets in Saturday.

Meanwhile, portions of the Northeast and New England remain active with
heavy rainfall today as training thunderstorms continue ahead of a slow
moving cold front. As of this afternoon, Flood Watches extend across
portions of Connecticut into New Hampshire, where hourly rainfall rates of
1-2"/hour within the training activity could quickly cause flash flooding
as soils are saturated from recent heavy rainfall.

Also along the East Coast -- even though Hurricane Lee remains well
offshore, the storm is already producing dangerous surf and rip currents
along portions of the Southeast Coast.  These conditions are forecast to
spread northward along the remainder of the East Coast over the next
couple of days. As Lee begins to approach portions of New England/Atlantic
Canada later this week, there is an increasing risk of wind, coastal
flooding, and rain impacts from Lee in portions of New England beginning
on Friday and continuing through the weekend. Interested parties are
encouraged to refer to nhc.noaa.gov for forecast updates on Lee.

Asherman/Pereira    

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php