Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 15 2023 - 12Z Sun Sep 17 2023

...Lee continues tracking north, tropical storm and hurricane conditions
possible for coastal New England Friday and Saturday...

...Heavy rain and strong storms likely over the Southern Plains Friday...

...Dry conditions in the West with some much above average highs expected
for the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies this weekend...

Hurricane Lee continues northward early this morning and will begin to
pass closer to New England by Friday evening. While the center of Lee is
currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to track into
Nova Scotia, related-hazards are expected to extend well away from the
center due to the large size of the system. Hurricane conditions are
possible for portions of Downeast Maine closest to the forecast track for
Lee, with tropical storm conditions expected to extend further southwest
through coastal New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Heavy rainfall is also
forecast to overspread coastal New England and across Maine by Saturday
morning, with the greatest chance for some localized instances of flooding
in eastern Maine where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is
in place. In addition to high winds and heavy rain, swells generated by
Lee will continue to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the East Coast. Highs will be more Fall-like Friday and
Saturday across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic following a frontal
passage, with 60s and 70s forecast. Temperatures will be warmer but still
running a bit below average in the Southeast and Florida, with mostly 80s
forecast.  

Elsewhere, an upper-level wave will help to drive a pair of cold fronts
southeastward across portions of the Midwest and Central Plains, bringing
a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Friday through early Saturday.
Further south, a lingering quasi-stationary front along the Gulf Coast and
into the Southern Plains as well as pooling moisture will lead to more
widespread storm chances and heavier rainfall. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in place for west-central Texas Friday where some localized
flash flooding will be possible. In addition to heavy rain, the Storm
Prediction Center has included portions of the Southern High Plains in a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) Friday as some of the
stronger storms may produce a few instances of large hail. Highs will be
generally seasonable across the Northern Plains and Midwest, ranging from
the 70s to low 80s, as well as into portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, with 80s expected. Highs will be much below
average for portions of the Central High Plains Friday, with some 60s in
the forecast, before conditions moderate back into the 70s by Saturday.

The West is forecast to remain mostly dry to start the weekend as an
upper-level ridge moves in over the region. High temperatures Friday and
Saturday will be 10-20 degrees above average for the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, with 80s and even some low 90s
forecast. After some cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the
southern Great Basin Friday following a frontal passage, highs are
expected to warm back up into the 80s by Saturday. Highs will generally be
running near average elsewhere in the West, with 60s and 70s for coastal
California, 80s and 90s for the central California Valleys, and 90s to low
100s for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam  

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php