Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 16 2023 - 00Z Mon Sep 18 2023

...Lee continues tracking north, tropical storm conditions possible for
coastal New England this afternoon and Saturday...

...Heavy rain and severe storms possible over the Southern Plains this
afternoon...

...Dry conditions in the West, with some much above average highs expected
for the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies this weekend...

Hurricane Lee continues a northward track this afternoon, with the current
National Hurricane Center forecast calling for Lee to track into Nova
Scotia Saturday. While the center of Lee is forecast to remain east of New
England, the large size of the storm will lead to storm impacts displaced
well apart from Lee's center. Accordingly, an area of Tropical Storm
Warnings extends along the New England coastline from Rhode Island to
Maine. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are expected to
begin in southern New England within the Tropical Storm Warning area this
afternoon, and spread northward along the coast of New England through
Saturday. These conditions are likely to lead to downed trees and
potential power outages. On the rainfall side of things, heavy rainfall
from Lee could produce localized urban and small stream flooding in
eastern Maine from tonight into Saturday night, where a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect tomorrow. In addition to high
winds and heavy rain, swells generated by Lee will continue to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the East Coast.

Elsewhere, an upper-level wave will help to push a pair of cold fronts
southeastward across portions of the Midwest and Central Plains, driving
thunderstorm activity across the Central U.S. this afternoon into early
Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place for west-central
Texas Friday where some localized flash flooding will be possible. In
addition to heavy rain, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions
of the Southern High Plains in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 2/5) Friday as some of the stronger storms may produce a few
instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado.

The West is forecast to remain mostly dry to start the weekend as an
upper-level ridge moves in over the region. High temperatures Friday and
Saturday will be 10-20 degrees above average for the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, with 80s and even some low 90s
forecast. The warm and dry conditions look to linger across much of the
Western U.S. through the weekend, before precipitation chances return
early next week with the arrival of the next upper-level trough.

Asherman/Putnam  

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php