Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 16 2023 - 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023

...Tropical storm conditions for coastal New England today as Lee tracks
by...

...Shower and storm chances this weekend from the Southern Plains to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic with some locally heavy rainfall possible...

...Much above average highs expected for the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies this weekend with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather Saturday...

Lee continues northward this morning with the center expected to track
into Nova Scotia by Saturday evening according to the latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center. While the center of Lee is forecast to
remain east of New England, the large size of the storm has and will
continue to lead to impacts well displaced from the storm's center.
Tropical storm conditions have overspread much of coastal New England and
are expected to continue through the day Saturday. Downed trees and and
power outages are possible. Some heavy rainfall is forecast particularly
for Downeast Maine, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for the chance of some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will also continue along the
Northeast Atlantic Coast through the day Saturday. High temperatures will
be a bit cool broadly for New England as clouds and precipitation linger
Saturday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will warm into
mid- to upper 70s Sunday as Lee departs to the Northeast.

Meanwhile, showers and storms will continue this weekend in the vicinity
of a quasi-stationary surface boundary stretching from Florida west along
the Gulf Coast and into the Southern Plains. Pooling moisture along the
boundary will help contribute to some locally heavy downpours and an
isolated chance of flash flooding, particularly for portions of Texas and
the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. An upper-level trough will
help drive another cold front south and eastward Sunday bringing lower
precipitation chances to Texas and the Gulf Coast while helping to focus
rain chances ahead of the front along the East Coast. Some locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible, especially for portions of the coastal
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be around average broadly for much
of the central and eastern U.S., with 60s and 70s for the Northern Plains
to the Great Lakes, 70s and 80s for the Central Plains into the Midwest
and Mid-Atlantic, and 80s and low 90s for the Southern Plains/Texas and
the Southeast.

The West is forecast to remain mostly dry this weekend as an upper-level
ridge settles in over the region. Forecast high temperatures are well
above average for portions of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains with 80s and low 90s expected. Gusty, downslope winds
as well as dry conditions have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather
(level 2/3) for portions of the Northern Rockies in Montana on Saturday,
with an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) for the Interior Pacific Northwest. High
temperatures elsewhere in the West will generally be around average, with
60s and 70s for coastal California, 80s for the central California Valleys
and Great Basin, and 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam  

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php