Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 17 2023 - 12Z Tue Sep 19 2023

...Shower and storm chances Sunday into Monday for the East Coast with
some locally heavy rainfall possible...

...Much above average highs expected for the Northern Great Basin and
Northern Plains along with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather on Sunday...

Moist southerly flow ahead of a pair of frontal systems approaching the
East Coast will lead to a wet Sunday from Florida north through the
Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy downpours will be possible,
particularly for the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, with the risk
for some isolated occurrences of flash flooding. The rain will shift into
New England on Monday as the front clears the coast further south and an
organizing area of low pressure off the coast helps to funnel more
moisture northward into the region. Lingering storms should mostly clear
out to the northeast by Tuesday morning. The passing of the fronts will
usher in some cooler, Fall-like temperatures more broadly over the norther
tier of the East, with 60s and 70s for the Midwest/Great Lakes into the
Appalachians and Interior Northeast Sunday spreading into New England and
the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Highs will be a bit warmer and more seasonable
further south with 80s into the Southeast and low 90s in Florida. 

Mostly pleasant weather conditions are expected in the central and western
U.S. underneath a ridge of high pressure. Rain chances should be limited
to some widely scattered showers and storms for the Southern Rockies on
Sunday. The northward extent of the ridge will continue to bring some much
above average high temperatures to the northern tier. Forecast highs
Sunday are in the 80s to low 90s from the Interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin east through the Northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Some gusty downslope winds as well dry conditions
have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) Sunday from the
Storm Prediction Center for portions of the Northern Rockies in Montana,
with an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) for portions of the Interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin. The risk is expected to continue to remain
elevated on Monday. The hotter than average temperatures will spread
eastward into the Northern/Central Plains Monday with more highs well into
the 80s and low 90s. A cold front pushing into the Pacific Northwest
should bring in some more seasonable temperatures in the 70s. Elsewhere,
highs will be more seasonably warm for late Summer, with 60s and 70s along
the West Coast, 80s from California east into the Great Basin, mid-80s
into the mid-90s for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, and
90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php