Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 20 2023 - 00Z Fri Sep 22 2023

...Heavy rain and severe storm chances for parts of the Southern Plains
through Wednesday...

...Above average heat forecast from the Plains to the Great Lakes through
Thursday...

Showers and strong thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
across portions of the Central Plains on the north side of a developing
warm front and surface low over Oklahoma tonight and into early Wednesday.
 There is currently a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across much of
eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas where higher rainfall rates with
the convection may lead to some instances of flooding.  There will likely
be some abatement across this region going beyond Wednesday afternoon, but
the continued presence of a stationary front nearby will continue to
provide enough forcing for at least scattered coverage of showers and
storms through Thursday across the Central Plains. 

An amplifying upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and into the
Northern Rockies will be accompanied by a slow moving front across the
Intermountain West through the middle to end of the week.  Rain is
expected to increase in coverage from Oregon and Nevada eastward to
Montana and eventually the Dakotas, with snow showers likely for the
higher mountain ranges of Idaho, Montana, and northwestern Wyoming as the
upper trough continues to build into the region with colder air aloft. 
This will also hold true for the Cascade Range.  Elsewhere across the
nation, unsettled weather conditions are likely for much of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday as copious moisture converges near a stalled
out front, with a surface low expected to develop along this boundary just
north of the Bahamas and expected to develop further going into the end of
the week, with rainfall reaching the coast of the Carolinas.

In terms of temperatures, it will continue to be unseasonably warm across
much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday ahead
of the cold front, and late summer heat will also linger across much of
the south-central U.S.  Fall will make its presence known across much of
the northwestern U.S. for the second half of the week with considerably
cooler conditions as the upper trough/low builds in overhead, with some
overnight lows dropping below freezing.

Hamrick

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php