Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 - 00Z Tue Sep 26 2023

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...There are two areas of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and second over the Southern Plain and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley...

...Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating...

...Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California...

Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating by Monday evening. OPHELIA will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

On Sunday, the area of heavy rain will shift northeastward over parts of
New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and
Southern New England from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

By Monday morning, OPHELIA will move out over the Western Atlantic and
slowly dissipate by Monday night. Rain associated with OPHELIA will
gradually taper off over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New
England on Monday.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Central/Southern Plains will slowly move eastward to the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains by Monday morning. The system will produce heavy rain from
parts of the Upper Midwest into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley, with the heaviest rain over parts of Central/Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Furthermore, an area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of southeastern Kansas, west-central Missouri, and northeastern
Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the region.

On Sunday, as the southern end of the front moves eastward, showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

The boundary will also produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains and a small section of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and a small section of the
Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Lastly, smoke from wildfires in California will reduce air quality over
parts of Central California, prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php