Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 24 2023 - 12Z Tue Sep 26 2023

...Scattered severe thunderstorm and heavy rain chances exist across parts
of the Southern Plains and Arklatex region today...

...Locally heavy rain possible across portions of the Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic...

...Wet weather and cooler temperatures enter the Pacific Northwest...

...One more day of widespread well above average temperatures expected
across Texas to end the weekend...


Clusters of thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall across eastern
Oklahoma, nearby Arkansas, and southern Missouri this morning are forecast
to slide southward today into parts of central/eastern Texas and the
Arklatex. A cold front gradually sinking south will spark additional
thunderstorms throughout the day and again overnight tonight. Some storms
may produce very large hail and damaging wind gusts from central Texas to
the Arklatex, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms. Instances of heavy rain are also
possible with overlapping thunderstorms that could create scattered flash
floods. The severe weather and heavy rainfall threats should diminish by
Monday as the associated frontal boundary stretches across southern Texas
and the Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and downpours are expected to become
more widespread across Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

Ophelia continues to weaken and is now considered a Post-Tropical Cyclone
over the Mid-Atlantic. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible along an
attached frontal boundary today as it stretches from eastern Pennsylvania
to just south of Long Island. A few inches of rainfall are possible near
this boundary and to the north, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall remains in effect. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, especially across urban regions. Additionally,
rough surf and coastal flooding due to strong east-northeasterly winds
will remain a concern along the Mid-Atlantic coastline until Monday as the
system eventually slides further east into the Atlantic.

Elsewhere, a low pressure system over the Upper Midwest will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this week. Wet and cool
weather is also anticipated to enter the Pacific Northwest as a cold front
nears the region tonight. Most of this rain will be beneficial as areas
begin to recover from severe to extreme drought conditions. Heavy rain
could lead to impacts associated with debris flows from this season's burn
scars across northwest California and southwest Oregon, where Flood
Watches have been issued.

Summer continues to hang on after autumn equinox throughout portions of
the southern Plains. Well above average temperatures are forecast for at
least one more day across the Lone Star State today until effects from an
approaching cold front usher in temperatures closer to average for
late-September. Highs into the upper 90s and low 100s could tie or break a
few daily high temperature records. Heat Advisories remain in effect
across parts of Texas today in order to account for heat indices
potentially reaching up to around 110 degrees.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php