Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 01 2023 - 00Z Tue Oct 03 2023

...Widespread precipitation, windy conditions, and below-normal
temperatures expected across much of the western U.S....

...Locally heavy rain with flooding possible over portions of the southern
High Plains and Rockies...

...Above-normal to near-record temperatures forecast to build farther
north over the north-central U.S....

A deep upper level trough and its associated frontal system will advance
across the western U.S., bringing widespread precipitation, windy
conditions, and below-normal temperatures to the region.  Widespread
precipitation will continue to develop across portions of California, the
Great Basin, and the northern to central Rockies through the remainder of
the weekend into Monday.  Some mixed precipitation and snow is expected
across some of the higher elevations, including portions of the Sierra and
the Glacier National Park area, where Winter Weather Advisories are
currently in affect.  Temperatures across much of the western U.S. are
forecast to remain seasonal to below-average through the early part of
next week, with some record cool temperatures expected for parts of
southern California and the Great Basin on Sunday.

Farther east, windy but mostly dry conditions are expected to continue
across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, which are likely to once
again elevate fire weather concerns across that region on Sunday.

Much wetter conditions are expected farther east over the southern High
Plains and along the eastern slopes of the southern Rockies, where moist
southerly winds are expected to support periods of showers and
thunderstorms each day.  These storms will have the potential to produce
locally heavy amounts, resulting in isolated excessive runoff and
flooding.  The areas impacted are likely to include Far West Texas, and
portions of central and northeast New Mexico, where Flood Watches are
currently in effect.

An upper level ridge will continue to support above-normal temperatures
across much of the central U.S. through the early part of next week. 
Anomalously warm temperatures, climbing more than 20 degrees above normal
in some locations, are expected to build farther north from the central
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Sunday, with near record highs forecast for areas extending
from eastern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota to Wisconsin.

High pressure and dry conditions, with seasonal to above-average
temperatures, are expected across much of the eastern U.S. through the
early part of next week. Florida will likely be an exception, where a
slow-moving frontal boundary is expected to support unsettled weather,
with areas of heavy rain possible.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php