Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah...

On Sunday, tropical moisture and a lingering front over Florida will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east coast of
Florida through Monday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
The threat of excessive rainfall decreases on Monday over Florida.
However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
through Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over parts of the Great Basin and California
on Sunday will begin to weaken on Monday as the trough moves eastward to
the Rockies. Rain and, in some places, higher elevation snow will develop
over parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Intermountain Region and
California/the Great Basin through late Monday morning. Parts of
northeastern Utah will get heavy snow at higher elevations through Monday
evening.

Moreover, the upper-level troughing will allow temperatures to be 10 to 20
degrees below average over parts of California, the Great Basin, the
Northern Intermountain Region, and the Northern Rockies. Furthermore,
upper-level ridging extending from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes
will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal over parts of
the Upper Midwest.

In addition, an area of rain will move northward into the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains on Monday into Tuesday. Also, a weak front
will move over the Pacific Northwest and dissipate by Tuesday, creating
rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday.

The front associated with the deep upper-level trough will move across the
Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains on Monday, producing showers and
severe thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Lastly, onshore flow off the Western Gulf of Mexico will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php