Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 02 2023 - 00Z Wed Oct 04 2023

...Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall possible across the southern
High Plains each day...

...Record-heat continuing across portions of the central U.S. on Monday,
shifting into the Northeast on Tuesday...

A broad area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will
continue to produce widespread unsettled weather and below-normal
temperatures as it drifts across the western U.S.  Areas of precipitation,
including high-elevation snow, will continue to spread across the
Intermountain West into the northern and central Rockies tonight into
early Monday.  Temperatures for most areas west of the Rockies will remain
seasonal to below-average on Monday, with cooler temperatures spreading
across the Rockies into the High Plains by Tuesday.

Moist, southerly winds ahead of the system will support showers and
thunderstorms developing each day across the southern High Plains.  Some
storms may become strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging
winds.  While there is some potential for severe storms to form later
today, the environment is expected to become more favorable for severe
storms across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas on Monday.  In
addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall, resulting in
excessive runoff and flooding, is also possible. 

As the system in the western U.S. continues to drift farther east,
organized precipitation is also expected to develop farther to the north,
with showers and storms developing across the northern and central Plains
beginning by late Monday and continuing into Tuesday.  There is the threat
for at least isolated hail and damaging winds gusts within the storms that
develop over the central and northern High Plains on Monday.

Ahead of the system, an upper level ridge will continue to support
above-normal temperatures across the central into the eastern U.S. through
the early part of the week, with another day of near-record to
record-breaking temperatures forecast from the central Plains into the
upper Midwest and across portions of east Texas on Monday.  On Tuesday,
the core of the anomalously warm temperatures is forecast to shift farther
east, with several record highs forecast for the Northeast.

Much of the eastern U.S. will be dry as well, with high pressure remaining
centered over the region into midweek.  Florida will remain the primary
exception, where a lingering frontal boundary will continue to support
showers and storms and the threat for locally heavy rainfall amounts.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php