Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains on Tuesday...

...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Northern
Rockies...

On Monday, an upper-level low over parts of the Great Basin will slowly
weaken and move eastward to the Northern Plains and Central/Southern
Rockies by Wednesday. By Wednesday, the associated front will move
eastward across the Central/Southern Rockies on Monday to the
Central/Southern Plains. Ahead of the boundary, moisture from the Western
Gulf of Mexico will pool over the Southern High Plains, producing showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southern High Plains through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Moreover, the front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will diminish slightly to a
broad area of Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains. The associated
heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas
that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, as the front moves eastward over the Plains, showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, upper-level troughing over the western part of the country will
allow temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, the Pacific Northwest, and
the Northern Rockies. Under the upper-level trough, rain and, at the
highest elevations, moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of the
Northern Rockies through Wednesday. Furthermore, upper-level ridging
extending from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes will allow
temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Western Ohio Valley.

Furthermore, a weak front will move over the Pacific Northwest and
dissipate by Tuesday, creating rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on
Monday into Tuesday.

Lastly, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php