Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 03 2023 - 00Z Thu Oct 05 2023

...A slight risk of excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms is
forecast for parts of the southern High Plains through this evening...

...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for the northern High
Plains this evening, then extend across the central and southern Plains
later on Tuesday...

...Fair and warm weather over the eastern half of the country will be in
sharp contrast with cool and unsettled weather with high-elevation snow
over the interior western U.S....

Over the next couple of days, much of the eastern half of the country will
enjoy fair and warm weather under the influence of a large dome of warm
high pressure system.  As the center of the high pressure system gradually
slides off the northeastern U.S., near record high temperatures into the
upper 80s to low 90s over the northern Plains this afternoon will shift
east into New England on Tuesday and into Wednesday afternoon under
increasingly strong southerly winds.

Meanwhile, much cooler than normal temperatures with high-elevation snow
will continue to move through the interior western U.S. before the
associated cold upper trough exits the Rockies and moves into the Plains
on Wednesday.  A rather potent cold front will advance gradually across
the Plains states through Wednesday, triggering areas of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of it, along with the potential of heavy downpours
leading to local flooding issues.  The highest threat of both heavy rain
and severe thunderstorms is expected over the southern High Plains through
this evening.  By later on Tuesday, the front is forecast to push east
into the Great Plains, with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
extending through the central and southern Plains under strong and gusty
southerly winds with afternoon temperatures well up into the 80s over the
central Plains to lower 90s in Texas.  The hazards associated with the
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, squalls, hail, and a few tornadoes. 
An area of enhanced rainfall is also expected over the northern High
Plains on the back side of a developing low pressure system.  By
Wednesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms should lessen as the main
low pressure system moves away into southern Canada, with scattered
thunderstorms expected to push eastward into the Midwest ahead of the cold
front.

Over the Pacific Northwest, a low pressure system will spread rain inland 
through tonight, and then into Idaho on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, onshore flow 
from off the Atlantic will keep showers and thunderstorms over parts of 
South Florida through tonight, and then along the east coast of Florida
late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php