Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 - 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday...

...Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming...

A front extending from the Northern Plains southward to the Southern High
Plains will slowly move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
High Plains by Thursday. Moisture will pool along the boundary, producing
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Plains. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an increased threat of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the Central/Southern Plains.

Moreover, moisture streaming onshore over the Western Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Gulf
Coast through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Wednesday. The
front will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Upper Great Lakes
southward to the Southern Plains. However, the showers and thunderstorms
will become severe over parts of Northwestern Texas and southwestern
Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Wednesday into
Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, on Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will move
from the Western Gulf Coast to northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma,
southwestern Missouri, Western Arkansas, and extreme northwestern
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level troughing associated with the front will aid in
creating rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California,
Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies on Tuesday. The energy
will also create snow at the highest elevations over parts of Wyoming. On
Wednesday, the lingering upper-level troughing will keep rain and
highest-elevation snow over parts of the Northern Rockies.

Furthermore, the upper-level troughing over the Rockies will allow
temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the Great
Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, and the Northern Rockies. East
of the upper-level troughing, upper-level ridging extends from the Gulf
Coast to the Upper Great Lakes that will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25
degrees above normal over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper
Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes,
and the Northeast.

Lastly, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida from late Tuesday into Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php