Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 04 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 06 2023

...Threat of scattered severe thunderstorms forecast across much of the
Great Plains through this evening before confining into the Southern
Plains on Wednesday...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible on Wednesday throughout
the Southern Plains and parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Well above average and potentially record-breaking warmth continues
across the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes into midweek...

A potent cold front gradually traversing the center of the Nation will be
the focus for much of the active weather impacting the CONUS over the next
few days. This frontal boundary current stretches from the northern Plains
to the southern High Plains and is anticipated to spark numerous
thunderstorms by this evening. Thunderstorms are then expected to organize
into a mostly continuous line of storms as they progress eastward into the
Upper Midwest tonight. Some storms could become strong enough to produce
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. The greatest chances
for intense thunderstorms exists across western/central Kansas and
south-central Nebraska. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather through tonight. By
Wednesday, the better combination of atmospheric instability, moisture,
and upper-level forcing is expected to confine to the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. Thus, the threat for severe weather is forecast
to stretch from the Stockton Plateau of West Texas through northern Texas
and central/southern Oklahoma. Additionally, developing storms on
Wednesday and Wednesday night are likely to contain intense rainfall
rates. As rainfall overlaps similar regions across the southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, several inches of rainfall could lead to
scattered flash floods. This region has been very dry as of late, limiting
the flash flood potential, but urbanized areas will still be most at risk
to rapid water rises and street flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall remains in effect for Wednesday and includes
north-central/northeast Texas, central/southeast Oklahoma, central/western
Arkansas, and southwest Missouri. The cold front is forecast to continue
eastward into the Great Lakes and southward deeper into the Southern
Plains on Thursday, with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances along
the boundary.

Opposite weather conditions are expected ahead of and behind the
aforementioned cold front as summer-like warmth surges northward in the
East around a large high pressure system extending from the western
Atlantic. Meanwhile, cooler weather with light high elevation snow is
possible across the Northern Rockies and remainder of the mountainous
West. In fact, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts southwest
Montana and western Wyoming. The most anomalous temperatures are
anticipated over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, where high
temperatures into the 80s are forecast to linger through Thursday. These
high temperatures are forecast to near or break daily high temperature
records on Wednesday from Lower Michigan to Upstate New York. Lastly,
easterly flow behind a frontal boundary will continue to produce unsettled
weather across the Atlantic side of the Florida Peninsula over the next
few days.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php