Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday...

...There is a Freeze Watch over parts of the Northern Plains overnight
Thursday...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast...

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday. A secondary front
moving southward from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains on
Thursday will move southward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Friday
and reinforce the lead front. Tropical moisture over the Western Gulf
Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain
over the Texas coast, Louisiana coast, southern Mississippi, and
southwestern Alabama. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast Valley
through Friday morning. The associated moderate to heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, the boundary will create showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast on Thursday. The boundary over
the Upper Midwest will create rain over parts of the Northern Plains that
will move into the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Overnight
Thursday into Friday, lake-enhanced rain showers will develop across parts
of the Great Lakes.

Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms will taper off overnight
Thursday over the Western Gulf Coast. On Friday, rain will develop along
the front from the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast, producing moderate to
heavy rain over parts of New York State, Pennsylvania, northern West
Virginia, northern New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northeast,
Lower Great Lakes, and Central Appalachians from Friday through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida. Overnight
Thursday, onshore flow will stream moisture into parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic, producing scattered rain showers over parts of the region
through late Friday night.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging extends from the Southeast to the
Northeast, will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal
over parts of the Northeast. In contrast, cold air flowing southward over
the Northern Plains has prompted a Freeze Watch over the region Thursday
night into Friday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php