Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 06 2023 - 00Z Sun Oct 08 2023

...Heavy rain is possible across parts of the Northeast and New England
through early this weekend...

...Freeze Watches issued throughout portions of the central/northern
Plains as cooler temperatures overspread much of the central and eastern
United States behind a potent cold front...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
and in conjunction with moisture surging northward of Tropical Storm
Philippe are forecast to impact the Northeast and New England between
Thursday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain should be the main weather
hazard, with repeating rounds of moderate to heavy rain potentially
leading to instances of flash flooding. Saturday has the greatest risk for
flooding concerns as the cold front clashes with increasing moisture off
the western Atlantic. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect for parts of New England on Saturday, highlighting the potential
for scattered flash floods. The center of Philippe is forecast to track
closer towards eastern Maine by Saturday night, while losing its tropical
characteristics and providing another focus for heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile, a much cooler airmass is overspreading the central United
States behind the aforementioned cold front as it pushes eastward. The
coldest temperatures of this season are possible over parts of the Plains,
as well as gusty winds up to 50 mph. Low temperatures below freezing
forecast throughout the central and southern Plains on Friday have
prompted Freeze Watches to be issued. These fall-like temperatures will
continue to infiltrate south and east before covering a majority of the
central and eastern U.S. by this weekend. Overall, highs are expected to
remain 10 to 20 degrees below average and only reach into the 50s and 60s
outside of Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere across CONUS, mostly dry and tranquil weather can be expected
through Saturday as high pressure builds into the middle part of the
Nation. Dry ground conditions, low relative humidity, and gusty winds
behind the cold front may increase the fire weather threat throughout
parts of the central Gulf Coast on Saturday, prompting Red Flag Warnings
to be hoisted. Hotter weather is forecast across coastal sections of
central and southern California, where Heat Advisories have been issued
due to high temperatures approaching the upper 90s.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php