Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast on Saturday...

...There is a Freeze Warnings/Watches over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains overnight Friday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast
will slowly move eastward off the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday evening.
Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico pooling along the boundary will
produce rain from the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast on
Friday that will move eastward with the front over parts of the Northeast
and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. In addition, on Friday, upper-level
energy over the Upper Midwest will create rain over parts of the Upper
Midwest, with lake-enhanced rain showers over the Great Lakes on Friday
and Saturday. 

Moreover, in the wake of the front, high pressure over the Northern High
Plains will move southward to the Southern Plains by Sunday. The high will
usher colder temperatures over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
the Upper Mississippi Valley, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
average over the region. The cold temperatures have prompted a Freeze
Warnings/Watches over the Northern/Central Plains overnight Friday into
Saturday morning. Additionally, the pressure gradient associated with the
high pressure has prompted Wind Advisories over parts of the area through
Friday morning.

Meanwhile, T. S. PHILIPPE is forecast to move northwestward across the
Western Atlantic and become a Post Tropical Cyclone by Saturday evening.
Post Tropical Cyclone PHILIPPE is then forecast to move into Northern New
England by Sunday morning. Moisture from the Atlantic will stream
northwestward into the Northeast on Saturday, producing heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northeast from Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php