Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023 - 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023

...Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning...

...Much cooler temperatures to spread eastward from the central U.S. into
much of the eastern U.S. this weekend...

...Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West...

A large upper level trough, extending from the Great Lakes to the
Tennessee Valley, will continue to move east today, eventually closing off
from the main jet stream and becoming a large closed low over much of the
eastern half of the nation for Sunday. Ahead of the upper trough, a cold
front will move into the Northeast today, bringing areas of slow moving
heavy rain to portions of eastern New York and western New England. Some
locations could receive over 3 inches of rain through Saturday night
posing a risk for flash flooding. This includes New York City and
surrounding areas into southern New England which remain sensitive to
runoff given heavy rain across the region from the end of September.
Meanwhile, the surface low from former Tropical Storm Philippe will track
into New England and the Canadian Maritimes tonight, becoming absorbed
into the closed low aloft. The approach of the surface low will coincide
with a surge of heavy rain which is likely to impact areas of Maine with
3-5 inches of rain later today through Sunday morning along with gusty
winds which could gust as high as 50 mph.

As the cold front sweeps eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, much colder
temperatures will follow in its wake. Folks in the central and northern
Plains will wake up to sub-freezing temperatures and/or frost this morning
and high temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average from the
Great Plains to the Appalachians. The core of the cold air will move into
the Midwest for Sunday with similar 10-20 degree temperature anomalies.
The cold air will promote lake effect showers and thunderstorms downwind
of the Great Lakes, but surface temperatures will remain too warm for
snow. Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will also be possible for
portions of central and southeastern Florida today/tonight as the cold
front moves through.

Much of the remainder of the country will be free from precipitation
except for some isolated thunderstorms across the Desert Southwest. Breezy
conditions and low relative humidity will increase the threat for the
spreading of wildfires today from the Gulf Coast states into portions of
the Southeast. Temperatures will be about 10-20 degrees above average for
locations along and west of the Rockies this weekend due to the influence
of a large upper level ridge in place. Some rain will likely begin to
impact the Pacific Northwest early Monday morning with the approach of a
cold front but the weekend should remain warm to hot and dry.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php