Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 08 2023 - 00Z Tue Oct 10 2023

...Remnants of Philippe to bring heavy rainfall with the risk of flash
flooding as well as gusty winds to the Northeast through early Sunday
morning...

...Much cooler, Fall temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. continue
this weekend...

...Much above average temperatures and dry conditions for the West before
a storm system enters the Pacific Northwest Monday...

A large upper trough over the eastern U.S. will continue to deepen, with a
closed low developing in the vicinity of the Great Lakes that is expected
to remain entrenched over the region through the end of the forecast
period. At the surface, a cold front will continue to push east towards
the East Coast, trailing southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile,
the extratropical remnants of Philippe will continue northwestward towards
the coast of Maine and Nova Scotia. Two corridors of associated heavy
rainfall are expected to continue Saturday. One with showers along the
eastward advancing cold front from New York City northwards into Upstate
New York and Vermont which should begin to taper off by this evening, and
another with deep tropical moisture being advected into eastern Maine in
advance of the approach of the extratropical remnants of Philippe. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains in effect for the
risk of some scattered flash flooding, mainly for the eastern Maine
corridor where several inches of rain are possible through early Sunday
morning. While the rain will taper off for New England Sunday, lake-effect
showers are expected to continue along favored corridors of the Lower
Great Lakes, with some potentially locally heavy totals especially east of
Lake Ontario. Further south, showers and storms are expected for South
Florida as well as the cold front slows and stalls in the vicinity, with
some heavy downpours possible and an isolated threat for flooding in the
urban areas.

High temperatures will remain cool and more Fall-like across much of the
East the next couple of days following the frontal passage and with upper
troughing remaining overhead. The Great Lakes will be the most below
average, by around 10-15 degrees, with highs in the 50s and even some
upper 40s. Highs will otherwise range from the 60s in the Northeast to the
70s in the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast into Texas. Some Frost
Advisories are in effect for portions of the Tennessee Valley and southern
Appalachians Sunday morning with lows dropping into the 30s. A bit further
west, conditions will moderate over the High Plains on Sunday with 60s and
70s and even some low 80s after a chilly Saturday morning.

As the trough deepens over the East, a ridge will remain in place over the
West Sunday with high temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above average
and even some record-tying/breaking highs possible. Highs will range from
the 70s and 80s in the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Rockies to the
90s in interior central and southern California and the Desert Southwest.
While conditions will remain mostly warm and dry across the Interior West
Monday, a storm system over the Pacific will approach northern California
and the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into the day Monday, with rainfall
overspreading much of the region by Monday evening. Cooler temperatures
will also arrive for the region with highs dropping into the 60s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php