Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023

...Heavy rain from the remnants of Philippe will come to an end across
Maine this morning but lingering areas of flooding and gusty winds will
remain into the day...

...Below average temperatures for much of the Great Lakes and eastern U.S.
along with lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms downwind of the
Great Lakes...

...Colder and wetter weather to arrive on the West Coast Monday, but above
average warmth to remain for the Interior West and Rockies...

A swath of heavy rain over Maine early this morning, tied to what was
formerly Tropical Storm Philippe, will move into the Canadian Maritimes by
this afternoon, leaving behind areas of flooding from roughly three to
five inches of rain which impacted the region. Gusty winds will remain
during the day, especially over northern Maine, but these too should begin
to subside throughout the afternoon.

Cool, fall-like temperatures will remain over the Great Lakes and east of
the Mississippi River over the next couple of days, as a large closed low
in the upper levels of the atmosphere remains situated over southeastern
Canada, just north of the Great Lakes. High temperatures will be 10 to 20
degrees below average from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today, with some moderation of temperatures on Monday but
remaining below average. With the cold air passing over the relatively
warm waters of Great Lakes, lake effect showers and thunderstorms will be
common for locations downwind (south and east). A favorable wind fetch
across Lake Ontario will support persistent and heavy rain at times for
areas immediately southeast and east of the lake, allowing for one to
three inches (locally higher) which may result in localized areas of
flooding today and tonight.

With the exception of isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms for central
Arizona into New Mexico, warm and dry conditions will continue for the
central and western U.S. today. High temperatures are expected to be about
10 to 20 degrees above average for most everyone west of the High Plains
today, but the arrival of a Pacific cold front will bring colder
temperatures and rain for locations extending from northern California to
western Washington starting Monday morning. Cooler temperatures will
spread from west to east into the Great Basin behind a cold front for
Monday into Tuesday but warm weather with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s
will remain for locations just east of the Continental Divide into the
Central Plains.

Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php