Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 10 2023 - 00Z Thu Oct 12 2023

...Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into the Great Plains...

...Below average temperatures continue for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
while lake effect showers persist through Tuesday...

...Surge of tropical moisture to bring an increased threat for heavy rain
and flash flooding for portions of the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday...

A pair of cold fronts will move through the western U.S. on Tuesday and
Wednesday, bringing precipitation mostly in their wake to the northern
Great Basin and central/northern Rockies with snow expected at higher
elevations.  As low pressure deepens in the lee of the Rockies,
precipitation will spread across the High Plains, the central and northern
Plains, as well as the Midwest.  The heavy rainfall expected across
portions of the Corn Belt could lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Below average temperatures (10
to 25 degrees below average) will gradually shift to the east across
portions of the western U.S. through mid-week.

Across the southern tier of the U.S., a stationary front in the southern
Gulf of Mexico will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday as a
convective, possibly hybrid low in the southwest Gulf moves north and
north-northeast with time to a position offshore the north-central Gulf
coast Wednesday afternoon. This will support an increase in deep moisture
along the Gulf Coast. Lidia and Max moving towards the region from the
eastern Pacific will increase in tropical moisture aloft.  Portions of
southern Texas could receive a few inches of rain through Tuesday night,
some of which could fall at a high intensity, supporting a risk for flash
flooding across southern Texas, with areas downstream along the
north-central and northeast Gulf Coast potentially receiving similar heavy
rainfall and a similarly elevated flash flood risk Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

A slow-moving closed low aloft, centered just north of the Great Lakes,
will keep cooler than average temperatures in the forecast into mid-week
for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast.


Roth/Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php