Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 11 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 13 2023

...Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the Pacific Northwest
and northern California through mid-week while above average temperatures
shift into parts of the Great Plains...

...Increased threat for heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of the
Gulf Coast Wednesday & near northeast Florida on Thursday...

A pair of cold fronts will move through the western U.S. over the next two
days, bringing precipitation inland across the Northwest, Interior West
and eventually into the central/northern Plains late Wednesday. High
temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees below mid-October averages will
spread eastward through Wednesday, supporting accumulating snow in the
higher elevations (mainly 7000+ ft) of the central to northern Rockies and
light to moderate rain elsewhere across the West.

As the related upper level system approaches the Great Plains on Wednesday
into Thursday, thunderstorms are expected to develop north of a warm front
extending eastward from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley. Heavy
rain from northern Nebraska/southern South Dakota into portions of the
Midwest could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Across the southern tier of the U.S., a warm front in Gulf of Mexico will
lift northward ahead of a convective area of low pressure moving through
the Gulf of Mexico which then gets strung out/mulch-centered as the system
shears eastward. Portions of southern Texas could receive a few inches of
rain through early Wednesday morning, some of which could fall at a high
intensity, supporting a risk for flash flooding. The heavy rain and flash
flood threat will spread northeastward toward the central Gulf Coast and
Southeast during the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night. While the
heaviest rain may remain offshore over the open waters of the Gulf, a few
inches of rain and locally excessive rainfall rates, will be possible from
the central Gulf Coast into southern Alabama/Georgia for Wednesday into
Thursday morning.  On Thursday, heavy rain could lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding in and near northeast Florida.

Across the Great Lakes, showers and cooler than average temperatures will
persist through Wednesday due to a slow-moving closed low aloft, centered
just north of the Great Lakes. The closed low is expected to begin
departing eastward while weakening on Thursday along with a temporary
improvement in weather conditions before the next system approaches from
the southwest.

Roth/Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php