Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023 - 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023

...Colder and unsettled weather to move east from the western U.S. into
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest while above average
temperatures shift into parts of the central/southern Plains and Ohio
Valley...

...Increased threat for heavy rain and flash flooding for portions of
Nebraska/South Dakota into the Upper Midwest and along the east-central
Gulf Coast into northern Florida...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Plains today
and Thursday...

An upper level trough will move across the western U.S. today, emerging
over the central Plains for Thursday. Behind the eastward moving
associated cold front, high temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees
below mid-October averages will be found today and Thursday, supporting
accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the central to northern
Rockies and light to moderate rain elsewhere across the West. As colder
air reaches the High Plains on Thursday, rain is expected to mix with or
change to snow for portions of the central High Plains. Across the higher
elevations of the Black Hills of South Dakota, snowfall accumulations of
over 6 inches will be possible by Friday morning.

Along and north of a warm front, extending eastward across the central
Plains into the Midwest, rain/thunderstorm coverage will increase during
the evening and overnight tonight. A few of the storms could become severe
from Nebraska into Iowa and Illinois while also posing a threat of flash
flooding from high rainfall rates. Areas of heavy rain will continue over
the central Plains and Midwest on Thursday with a renewed surge in
convective intensity occurring near the Nebraska surface low during the
afternoon. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected late Thursday
afternoon into the overnight for portions of eastern Nebraska into eastern
Kansas with flash flooding becoming a concern to the north, in and around
the Middle Missouri River Valley.

Across the southern tier of the U.S., a surface low along a warm front in
Gulf of Mexico will lift northward today, coinciding with a surge in
tropical moisture across the Gulf Coast region. Areas of rain will
increase in coverage and intensity late this afternoon with the heaviest
rain expected from the central to eastern Gulf Coast into southern
portions Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina overnight. Two to four inches
of rain, with locally higher totals possible, is expected from far
southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and northern Florida
through Thursday morning.

Farther north, a closed low which has been nearly stationary for the past
few days just north the Great Lakes will finally begin to move east today.
Showers beneath the closed low will continue across the Great Lakes region
for one more day today followed by a temporary break in precipitation on
Thursday. However, cooler than average temperatures will persist into the
end of the week and more rain will approach from the southwest, spreading
northeastward from southern portions of Lake Michigan late Thursday into
Thursday night.

Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php