Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 12 2023 - 00Z Sat Oct 14 2023


...Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes...

...Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida...


A significant weather system pushing out of the West today will intensify
as it pushes into the Plains on Thursday. This system is expected to bring
an array of hazardous weather to portions of the north-central U.S.
through Friday. Along and north of the associated warm front, extending
eastward across the central Plains into the Midwest, rain/thunderstorm
coverage will increase tonight, and some storms could pose both a threat
for severe weather and flash flooding. Areas of heavy rain will continue
over the central Plains and Midwest into Thursday with a renewed surge in
convective intensity occurring near the Nebraska surface low during the
afternoon. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected late Thursday
afternoon into the overnight for portions of eastern Nebraska into eastern
Kansas with flash flooding becoming a concern to the north, in/around the
Middle Missouri River Valley. Heavy rainfall should spread north and
eastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday with a threat for
flash flooding/excessive rainfall.

Behind this system, temperatures well below normal should be cold enough
to support accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the central and
northern Rockies tonight and through Thursday. As colder air reaches the
High Plains tomorrow, rain may also mix with or change to snow over
portions of the central High Plains. To the south and east of this system,
much above normal temperatures will overspread the southern Plains, into
the Midwest and East Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the 70s
likely or even the 80s for some. 

An area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico along a warm front will
interact with a surge in tropical moisture to continue a threat for heavy
rainfall along portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast and southern
portions of the Southeastern states as well. Two to four inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts possible, is expected for parts of the Florida
Panhandle and northern Florida peninsula into Thursday. Instability near
the frontal boundary itself should allow for a threat for severe weather
as well across northern Florida.

Farther north, a closed low which has been nearly stationary for the past
few days just north the Great Lakes will finally begin to move east
tonight and Thursday. Showers beneath the closed low will continue
downwind of the Great Lakes region on Thursday, but the rest of the
Northeast should be mostly dry except for some light showers across
northern Vermont to Maine. Cooler than average temperatures will persist
into the end of the week underneath this upper low as it slides eastward.

Santorelli/Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php