Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023


...Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes...

...Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida...

A low pressure system exiting into the Plains is expected to intensify
while ushering in a myriad of hazardous weather through the end of the
week. For portions of the Central Plains and Midwest that are along and
north of the associated warm front there will be increasing coverage of
thunderstorms that will carry the threat for severe weather and flash
flooding. The Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center
have Marginal and Slight Risks in place for Thursday with the area
shifting eastward on Friday. Severe thunderstorms is expected late
Thursday afternoon into the overnight for portions of eastern Nebraska
into eastern Kansas with flash flooding becoming a concern to the north,
in/around the Middle Missouri River Valley. Heavy rainfall should spread
north and eastward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday with a
threat for flash flooding/excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will fall to well below seasonal normal in the wake of this
system which should be cold enough to support accumulating snow in the
higher elevations of the Central/Northern Rockies through Thursday. This
colder airmass will filter into the High Plains which may allow rain to
mix with or change to snow over portions of the Central High Plains. To
the south and east of this system, much above normal temperatures will
overspread the Southern Plains, into the Midwest and East through Friday
with afternoon maximums in the 70s likely or even the 80s for some. 

An area of low pressure along a warm front in the Gulf of Mexico will
interact with a surge in tropical moisture to continue a threat for heavy
rainfall along portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast and southern
portions of the Southeastern states. Many locations could see 2 to 4
inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible across the Florida
panhandle and northern Florida peninsula. Instability near the frontal
boundary itself should allow for a threat for severe weather as well
across northern Florida.

Farther north, a closed low which has been nearly stationary for the past
few days just north the Great Lakes will finally begin to move east.
Showers beneath the closed low will continue downwind of the Great Lakes
region on Thursday, but the rest of the Northeast should be mostly dry
except for some light showers across northern Vermont to Maine. Cooler
than average temperatures will persist into the end of the week underneath
this upper low as it slides eastward.

Campbell/Santorelli

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php