Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 13 2023 - 00Z Sun Oct 15 2023

...Significant fall weather system to bring heavy rain and severe weather
to parts of the Middle Missouri Valley and Midwest, with high elevation
snow and strong winds located across parts of the Rockies and Plains...

...Critical Fire Weather forecast across much of the central and southern
High Plains...

...Threat of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding lingers across
northern Florida and the central Florida Peninsula through this evening...

A dynamic, large, and powerful low pressure system progressing from the
central U.S. to Mid-Atlantic over the next few days will be responsible
for multiple weather hazards across much of the Great Plains, Rockies, and
Midwest. The active weather is ongoing as the aforementioned low pressure
system churns over the central Plains this afternoon, with chances for
heavy rain and severe thunderstorms increasing this evening. Thunderstorms
developing near intersecting frontal boundaries and clashing air masses
may be capable of containing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
tornadoes. The greatest threat for these dangerous storms resides over
central and eastern Nebraska, as well as nearby northern Kansas, western
Iowa, and northwest Missouri. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. Additionally, slow-moving
storms and widespread moderate to heavy rainfall could cause scattered
flash flooding concerns through tonight across a similar area. By Friday,
the heavy rain and flash flooding threat is expected to shift towards the
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, along with a lesser severe thunderstorm
threat when compared to tonight. Places such as southern Wisconsin and
northern Illinois including Chicago, could see a few inches of rain as
showers and thunderstorms pivot around the eastern and northern periphery
of the low pressure system. Unsettled weather will enter the Mid-Atlantic
and Ohio Valley to start the weekend, with main impacts associated with
cool afternoon temperatures and locally moderate rainfall.

On the backside of the aforementioned low pressure system into the end of
the week, gusty winds over the Plains and wintry weather throughout the
Rockies could lead to a few travel headaches. A strong pressure gradient
will be responsible for widespread strong northerly winds with gusts up to
60 mph over much of the central High Plains. This has prompted High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories to be issued. These winds may move loose
debris, damage property, cause power outages, and create difficult travel
for high profile vehicles. Additionally, these strong winds when combined
with low relative humidity and dry vegetation may lead to fire weather
concerns throughout the southern and central High Plains. Red Flag
Warnings are in effect and stretch from New Mexico to central Kansas. The
first major high elevation snow is also anticipated within the cold
airmass behind this system over parts of the central and southern Rockies
through early Friday. Heavy snow is most likely to impact the mountainous
terrain of Wyoming and Colorado, with snowfall and blowing snow also
possible in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Pine Ridge of northwest
Nebraska.

Elsewhere, a slowly progressing frontal system over northern Florida is
likely to lead to additional shower and thunderstorm chances over the
Sunshine State for the next few days. Although, activity should become
less organized by Friday. Localized heavy rain and scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible through this evening across the
northern/central Florida Peninsula, with the primary threat being
associated with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Wet weather is also
expected to continue for the next few days across the Pacific Northwest
and parts of Maine.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php