Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 14 2023 - 00Z Mon Oct 16 2023

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Freeze Warnings/Watches over parts of the Central/Southern
High Plains overnight Friday...

Low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley slowly moves eastward out
over the Western Atlantic by Sunday morning. The low will pull moisture
into the Midwest, creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. 

Moreover, the associated front will destabilize the atmosphere, producing
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Iowa. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, the southern end of the
front will move southward over southern Texas, producing showers and
thunderstorms through late Saturday afternoon.

On Saturday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly and the
threat of excessive rainfall ends. However, rain develops over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the
Upper Great Lakes through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, there is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Overnight Saturday into Sunday, scattered
rain will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Lower
Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile, on Friday evening, upper-level energy moving across the
Southeast will create mainly rain over parts of Alabama, Georgia, South
Carolina, and northern Florida, moving into the southern Mid-Atlantic
overnight Friday. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of southern Florida that will linger into Sunday.

Furthermore, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move close to the
Pacific Northwest on Friday evening before dissipating by Saturday
morning. Moisture associated with the front will aid in creating rain over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of Northern California through
early Saturday morning. Weak onshore flow will keep rain over parts of the
Pacific Northwest through late Sunday afternoon.

Finally, high pressure over the Central/Southern High Plains will produce
calm wind and clear skies, prompting Freeze Warnings/Watches through
Saturday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php