Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 15 2023 - 00Z Tue Oct 17 2023

...Departing storm system to result in the arrival of cooler, crisp autumn
air throughout the eastern half of the Lower 48...

...In contrast, temperatures rebound to near summer-like levels in West
with mostly dry conditions...

...Cooler and wetter regime expected in the Pacific Northwest...

It is a damp and dreary afternoon from the Great Lakes to the East Coast
thanks to one storm system tracking across the northern Mid-Atlantic and a
second storm system tracking northeast over eastern North Carolina. As
they track off the coast later tonight, spotty showers will linger in
their wake tonight. By Sunday, hit-or-miss showers will remain in the
forecast in the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valleys, and parts of the Northeast
thanks to persistent northerly flow over the Great Lakes. The bigger
weather story, however, becomes the fresh injection of autumn temperatures
and blustery winds as high pressure builds in from the west and the
aforementioned storm system off the Eastern Seaboard strengthens. Daytime
highs from the Great Plains to the East Coast look to average as much as
10-20 degrees below normal. Low temps Sunday and Monday mornings will drop
into the 40s from the Front Range of the Rockies to the East Coast, with
the lone exceptions being along the Gulf Coast. Monday looks even cooler
for parts of the Mid-South and the Appalachians where daytime highs will
struggle to get out of the 50s in some locations. Most of the Plains and
eastern U.S. will witness dry conditions, but widely scattered showers in
the eastern Great Lakes, Appalachians, and Northeast are possible Sunday
and Monday.

While the East plunges into a more autumn-like temperature regime, an
amplifying ridge over the West is set to foster more summer-like
temperatures by the start of the work-week. Daytime highs are forecast to
range between 5-15 degrees above normal on Sunday, then jump as high as 20
degrees above normal in parts of the Desert Southwest and both the
Northern Rockies and High Plains. The dome of upper level ridging will
also play a big role in maintaining a dry start to the upcoming week. The
only exception is the Pacific Northwest, where a series of storm systems
tracking through the northwest Pacific delivers periods of rain to western
Washington and Oregon. The first frontal system looks to produce periods
of rain in western Washington tonight and into Sunday, with a second and
more potent storm producing widespread showers as far south as northern
California. This latter storm will also usher in a seasonally cooler
air-mass to the Northwest by Tuesday.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php