Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 17 2023 - 00Z Thu Oct 19 2023

...A cool autumn airmass will be slow to depart the eastern half of the
country with scattered showers in parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes, and
Central Appalachians...

...Warm and dry across much of the western U.S., but rainy conditions
remain over the Pacific Northwest...

...A warming trend expected in the Great Plains as a round of mostly light
rain reaches into the northern Plains late Tuesday...

An expansive area of north to northwesterly flow between a departing storm
system off the Canadian Maritimes and an axis of high pressure anchored
over the Great Plains will continue to direct a cool autumn air mass
farther south toward the Gulf Coast and even Florida. However, as this
high pressure weakens and begins to shift eastward, a reservoir of warm
air over much of the western U.S is expected to to slowly filter into the
Great Plains. The warming process will be slower to occur farther east as
the massive expanse of cool autumn air over the eastern half of the
country will be slow to break down. Under this weather pattern, scattered
showers will once again be found through tonight from interior New England
to the lower Great Lakes, down across the Ohio Valley, and as farther
south as the southern Appalachians. The showers should hold off along the
Eastern Seaboard, but partly to occasionally mostly cloudy conditions will
prevail this evening before the high pressure system finally slides across
the region later on Tuesday with a better chance of seeing breaks in the
clouds.

While much of the interior western U.S. has been dry, moisture associated
with a cold front ahead of an upper trough will bring windy and rainy
conditions into the Pacific Northwest and down into northwestern
California for the rest of today. This latest round of rain is forecast to
end later on Tuesday from Oregon southward with the Olympic Peninsula in
Washington remaining rainy through Wednesday morning upon the arrival of a
warm front well ahead of the next Pacific system. Meanwhile, a piece of
the lead upper trough will penetrate farther inland, bringing a round of
rain and high-elevation wet snow across Idaho and Montana into early
Tuesday. By Tuesday night into early Wednesday, an Alberta clipper is
forecast to slide southeastward into the far northern Plains where a round
of mostly light rain can be expected. Strong winds including maximum gusts
up to 70 mph are possible on Tuesday across parts of the northern High
Plains. This has prompted High Wind Warnings to be issued for parts of
northern and central Montana. Meanwhile, southerly flow developing ahead
of the Alberta clipper and a lee trough near the foothills of the Rockies
will allow warm air to filter into the High Plains on Tuesday, resulting
in afternoon high temperatures well into the 80s by Tuesday afternoon as
dry conditions continue. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will
continue over the Desert Southwest where high temperatures could top the
century mark for the next few days.

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php