Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 18 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 20 2023

...An Alberta clipper will bring very gusty winds and a round of rain
across the Northern Plains through Wednesday, spreading into the Great
Lakes Wednesday night and early Thursday...

...A warming trend is in store for the eastern half of the country as an
expansive cool airmass moderates...

...Warm and dry air across much of the western U.S. will spread into the
Plains while rainy conditions remain over the Pacific Northwest...

The weather pattern that has been sustaining an expansive area of cool air
mass across the eastern half of the country the past few days is forecast
to slowly break down during the next couple of days as an Alberta clipper
tracks into the Northern Plains.  Below normal temperatures that have been
felt across the central to eastern U.S. will gradually moderate as a high
pressure ridge slides eastward to reach the East Coast later on Wednesday,
allowing a reservoir of warm air over much of the western U.S. to reach
into the Great Plains. The warming process will be the slowest across the
South where the associated cold upper trough will be the last to break
down. A slow clearing and warming trend is expected through the next
couple of days as this cool weather pattern breaks down further.

While much of the interior western U.S. has been dry, rainy weather is
expected to continue across the Olympic Peninsula for at least a couple
more days with the arrival of a warm front from the next Pacific system.
By tonight into early Wednesday, an Alberta clipper is forecast to slide
southeastward into the far northern Plains where a round of mostly light
rain can be expected.  Strong winds including maximum gusts up to 60 mph
are possible tonight across parts of the Northern High Plains.  This has
prompted High Wind Warnings to be issued for parts of northern and central
Montana.  On Wednesday, the clipper is forecast to head east toward the
upper Midwest, spreading rain into the Great Lakes and down into the
mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night and early Thursday. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms spread into the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Thursday and
Scattered thunderstorms develop across the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi
Valley along the cold front associated with the Alberta Clipper.

Meanwhile, southerly flow developing ahead of the Alberta clipper and a
lee trough near the foothills of the Rockies will allow warm air to filter
into the High Plains. Above normal temperatures will continue over the
Desert Southwest where high temperatures could top the century mark for
the next few days. Ridging across the West will also support potentially
widespread record breaking warm temperatures across the region this
Thursday and Friday.

Kebede/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php