Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023 - 12Z Sun Oct 22 2023 ...Storm system to bring showers and thunderstorms to the East into the weekend... ...Much above average, record-tying/breaking warmth for much of the central-western U.S... An amplified upper-level pattern with troughing over the eastern U.S. and a large ridge over the central-western U.S. will bring showers and thunderstorms to the East and more above average, record-tying/breaking warmth to the West. A cold front currently extending from the Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast will continue eastward Friday morning, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the length of the front. In the meantime, an organizing area of low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas will help promote onshore flow over the Mid-Atlantic, adding a second focus for shower and thunderstorm chances into the day Friday. The cold front will approach the East Coast by Friday night as the coastal low shifts northward towards New England. Rapid consolidation/deepening of this low overnight Friday and into the day Saturday will help to enhance the flow of moisture into Upstate New York and New England, bringing the threat for much heavier rainfall and an isolated chance of flash flooding. Conditions will also turn a bit blustery from the Mid-Atlantic into New England following the passage of the system. Some lingering lake-effect rain showers will continue across the Great Lakes as well. High temperatures ahead of the front in the Northeast on Friday will be mild and in the 60s and 70s, with 50s behind the front from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will drop into the 50s and 60s for the Northeast Saturday following the frontal passage. The Southeast and Florida will be dry by Friday evening as the front pushes off the coast. Highs will be closer to average and in the 70s and 80s for eastern portions of the region while warmer highs into the 80s are forecast west towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, high temperatures will be as much as 20-30 degrees above average for late October across the central and western U.S. Friday. Forecast highs range in the 60s and 70s from the Pacific Northwest east through the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, the 70s for the Great Basin, the 80s for the Central Plains, the 80s and 90s for interior California and the Southern Plains/Texas, and into the low 100s for the Desert Southwest. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs are possible. A cold front dropping southward through the Northern/Central Plains and a Pacific cold front moving onshore the West Coast will bring high temperatures back much closer to average for these areas on Saturday. Elsewhere, while conditions will moderate a bit as the upper-level ridge weakens, highs will still be much above average with a few more record-tying/breaking temperatures possible from the Great Basin/Desert Southwest east into the Southern Plains and Texas. The Pacific front will also begin to bring some showers to northern California and the Pacific Northwest Saturday, increasing in intensity and coverage by early Sunday morning as the front pushes inland. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php