Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 25 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 27 2023

..Heavy snow from the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains to the Upper Great Lakes through Thursday...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Rockies to Northern Plains...

Cold high pressure over West-Central Canada and upper-level energy will
produce heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies into the Northern
Plains. Further, the cold air associated with the high will be 20 to 35
degrees below average over parts of the Northern Rockies to Northern
Plains. In addition, the system will produce a long-duration winter storm
that will begin on Tuesday across the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies and continue through Thursday evening over portions of the
Northern Plains.

Furthermore, there is a high chance (80 percent plus) for more than 8
inches of snow, with locally 1-2 feet likely, in the higher terrain of the
Cascades and portions of the Rockies as far south as Wyoming. The heavy
snow will cause hazardous travel at many of the mountain passes.

Moreover, multiple waves of heavy snow will stretch across Montana and
into North Dakota Tuesday night through Friday morning. Bands of heavy
snow with rates of 1 inch per hour have a high chance (70 percent plus) of
producing more than 8 inches of snowfall in this region, with a low chance
(10-30 percent) of locally 18 inches. These bands will likely result in
difficult travel due to snow-covered or icy roads and poor visibility.

Meanwhile, favorable upper-level flow and moisture streaming northward
over the Plains from the Western Gulf of Mexico will create showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday
morning.

Additionally, a front over the Upper Great Lakes to the Central High
Plains will pool moisture along the boundary, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper
Great Lakes through Wednesday morning. 

On Wednesday, the favorable upper-level flow and moisture streaming over
the Plains will create showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the
Southern Plains from Wednesday through Thursday morning.

The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. 

Also, the excessive rainfall threat decreased slightly over the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains on Wednesday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.

On Thursday, the front will be quasi-stationary over the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes. Another moisture surge will pool along the
boundary, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, easterly flow off the Atlantic will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php