Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Wed Oct 25 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 26 2023 - 00Z Sat Oct 28 2023

...Heavy snow from the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Rockies to Northern High Plains...

Cold high pressure over West-Central Canada and upper-level energy will
aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Plains. Further, the cold air associated with the high will be 20
to 35 degrees below average over parts of the Northern Rockies to the
Northern High Plains. In addition, the snow and cold will produce a
long-duration winter storm that will continue from the Northern Rockies to
the Northern Plains. Another round of snow is expected on Thursday before
ending on Friday.

Further, periods of heavy snow exceeding 1 inch per hour in the Northern
Rockies and High Plains through Friday morning may lead to difficult
travel conditions due to snow-covered or icy roads and poor visibility in
areas of blowing snow. Moreover, there is a high chance greater than 70
percent probability of an additional 8 inches of snowfall over northwest
Wyoming and much of southwestern to northeastern North Dakota.
Additionally, temperatures will be well below normal by 20-30 degrees
across the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains through the weekend.
Low temperatures in the teens and single digits will be common over much
of Montana into the northern Plains. Wind chills may dip below zero at
times.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow will produce scattered rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern/Central California that will wind down by Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, favorable upper-level flow and moisture streaming northward
over the Plains from the Western Gulf of Mexico will create showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

On Thursday, a front over the Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains
will have moisture pooling along the boundary, producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper
Great Lakes from Thursday into Friday morning. 

Additionally, on Thursday, favorable upper-level flow and moisture
streaming northward over the Plains will create showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Southern Plains. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

On Friday, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central
Plains will move to the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains by Friday
evening. The boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms from the
Great Lakes to the Southern Plains on Friday.

Elsewhere, easterly flow off the Atlantic will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php