Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 26 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023

...Significant early season winter storm continues from the Northern
Rockies through the Northern Plains Thursday, tapering off Friday...

...Heavy rainfall with the threat of scattered flash flooding for Southern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes...

...Much above average temperatures for the East as winter-like cold
spreads southward in the Northern/Central Plains...

Bouts of heavy snow will continue for portions of the Northern Rockies and
Plains Thursday ahead of an upper-level low over the Northwest. Additional
snowfall of 4-8 inches, locally higher, is expected from central/eastern
Montana into western/northern North Dakota. Another 8-12 inches of snow is
also expected for the local mountain ranges of southwestern Montana,
Wyoming, and northern Utah. Heavy snow rates of 1"/hr as well as some
blustery winds may lead to low visibility and difficult travel conditions.
The snow should begin to taper off west to east through early Friday
morning, with some snow lingering for higher elevations of the Northern
and Central Rockies.

A wet and stormy pattern remains in place across much of the Plains and
into the Midwest/Great Lakes as energetic southwesterly flow continues
aloft, helping to trigger additional rounds of showers and storms and
leading to two localized maxima of heavy rainfall. The first will be over
the Southern Plains where anomalously high moisture remains in place,
helping to contribute to locally heavy downpours and enhancing rainfall
totals, particularly as storms tend to cluster and repeat over the same
areas. Antecedent conditions have increasingly become wetter after
multiple days of widespread heavy rainfall. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect for portions of central to eastern
Texas Thursday and northern Texas Friday where the highest probability of
some scattered instances of flash flooding exists. A second local maxima
will once again be over the Upper Great Lakes where moist southerly flow
meets a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped over the region. An
upper-level shortwave passing over the region Thursday will also help
encourage storm development, with rainfall totals of a few inches possible
as storms travel along and near the front. Similar to the Southern Plains,
a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place Thursday as this area has
seen multiple days of heavy rainfall recently, helping to enhance concerns
for the risk of some flash flooding.

An upper-level ridge amplifying over the East will help keep temperatures
well above average heading into the weekend. Forecast highs range from the
60s and 70s for the Great Lakes and New England; the 70s to low 80s from
the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic; and the 80s for the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and the Southeast. Some record-tying/breaking highs will be
possible for the Mid-Atlantic. In contrast, bitterly cold, winter-like air
will continue for the Northern Rockies/Plains behind a strong cold front
even as the winter storm tapers off. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday
from Montana into northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas will only get
to the 20s, with morning lows for some areas dropping into the single
digits. Blustery winds may lead to subzero wind chills at times. After
much above average highs in the 60s and 70s for the Central Plains
Thursday, highs will drop into the 40s Friday as the cold front pushes
southward. Much colder, well below average temperatures will also follow a
cold front southward through the West.  Forecast highs Thursday and Friday
for much of the interior Northwest and Great Basin will be in the 40s,
with 50s and 60s along the West Coast. Temperatures will be closer to
average in the Desert Southwest with 70s and 80s expected.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php