Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 27 2023 - 00Z Sun Oct 29 2023

...Significant early season winter storm continues from the Northern
Rockies through the Northern Plains tonight, tapering off Friday...

...Heavy rainfall with the threat of scattered flash flooding from
Southern Plains to Upper Great Lakes...

...A very warm weekend in the East while arctic airmass descends upon the
West and Central CONUS...


Additional rounds of heavy snow are forecast to persist tonight before
ending on Friday. Periods of heavy snow near 1"/her are likely (60-90%
chance) in the Northern Plains through Friday Morning. Travel may be
difficult due to snow-covered or icy roads and poor visibility in areas of
blowing snow. Temperatures will be 20-30 degrees below normal across the
Northern High Plains and Northern Plains through the weekend. Low
temperatures in the teens and single digits will be common over much of
Montana into the Northern Plains. Wind chills may dip below zero at times.

Rounds of convection are expected to occur within the warm sector of the
winter storm over the next few days. Shortwave energy riding up the
southern periphery of an upper trough will promote scattered to isolated
thunderstorms from the Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. There's a
Slight Risk (at least 15% chance) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding over portions of eastern Texas and eastern Wisconsin into
northern Michigan, but the heaviest rainfall will come to an end this
evening. An arctic cold front will arrive over the Southern Plains on
Friday and trigger another round of thunderstorms across the region.
Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of
northeastern Texas (including the Dallas-Fort Worth metro) through the
ArkLaTex and into western Arkansas, where 1-2" of rainfall over relatively
moist soils from antecedent rain could lead to flash flooding. This Flash
Flood threat shifts into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri on
Saturday as the cold front moves into that area. A Slight Risk is in
effect from this region back into eastern Oklahoma to account for the
overlapping threat from the day before.

Temperatures east of the Mississippi will be above average to well above
average over the next few days pre-frontal passage. Lows in the upper 50s
to low 70s from the Upper Great Lakes to Southern Plains will be 15-25
degrees above average tonight before the potentially record breaking low
temperatures shift into the Northeast and Ohio Valley on Friday night.
High to record breaking warm temperatures are expected to continue across
the Mid-Atlantic through Saturday before temperatures begin to moderate a
bit heading into next week. The approaching central U.S. cold front will
also draw up warm Gulf air into the Southeast. Parts of the Southern
Appalachians may experience record high temperatures on Saturday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php