Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 29 2023 - 00Z Tue Oct 31 2023

...Heavy snow for the Central Rockies/Central High Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
Plains on Saturday and Sunday...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies and Northern/Central Plains; Temperatures will be
10 to 20 degrees above average from Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...

...Very dry and windy conditions developing across California on Sunday
will increase the threat of wildfire activity...

Cold high pressure extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern
Plains will move southeastward to the Southern Plains to the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Monday. The cold air associated with the high will
be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Northern/Central
Rockies and Northern/Central Plains. In contrast, upper-level ridging
extending from the Southeast to the Northeast will allow temperatures to
be 10 to 20 degrees above average from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast.

In addition, the wind associated with the area of high pressure will
produce a region of Critical Fire Weather over parts of Southwestern
California on Sunday. The fire weather area is due to gusty wind, low
relative humidity, and dry fuels over the area.

Further, a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic roughly southwestward to
the Southern Plains and then roughly northwestward to the Great Basin will
move off the Northeast and Western Gulf Coast while lingering over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast by Monday. A wave
of low pressure over the Central Rockies will slowly move southeastward
into Northern Mexico and dissipate by late Sunday evening. The low will
aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the Central Rockies and Central
Plains from Saturday evening into Sunday that will taper off to snow
showers by Monday. Additionally, an area of light rain/freezing rain will
develop over parts of Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday evening
into Sunday.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun and pool along
the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains, creating showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley,
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern
Plains through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

The area of Slight Risk of excessive rainfall will be over a slightly
smaller area over parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, and the Southern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

On Monday, a front developing over Central Canada will move southward into
the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday evening, creating
light snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley.
Furthermore, as the cold air moves over Lake Superior, lake effect snow
will develop over the southern coast of Lake Superior overnight Saturday
into Sunday. On Monday, the lake effect snow becomes heavier over parts of
the southern coast of Lake Superior into the higher elevations of the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. 


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php