Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023

...Heavy snow continues for parts of the central Rockies and central High
Plains through early this afternoon, while areas of light freezing
rain/drizzle are forecast throughout the Southern Plains...

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to span from the southern Plains
to the Northeast over the next few days, including the potential for
significant snowfall over parts of northern Maine on Monday...

...Very dry and windy conditions developing across California will
increase the threat of wildfire activity...

...Record-breaking warmth expected over the southern Mid-Atlantic today as
below average temperatures envelop the central United States...

Most of the unsettled weather impacting the CONUS through early this week
will be associated with a sharp frontal boundary slowly progressing south
and east along with embedded areas of low pressure. A strong high pressure
system stretching from the northern Rockies to the north-central U.S.
contains a repository of well below average temperatures expected to
spread across the country as the cold front eventually swings through the
Southeast on Tuesday. This frontal boundary currently spans from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southwest and is aiding widespread snowfall across the
central Rockies/Plains and shower activity from the southern Plains to the
Lower Great Lakes early this morning. Heavy snow remains possible through
early this afternoon across parts of Colorado, particularly the
mountainous terrain and Front Range. The highest additional snowfall
totals today are likely to occur along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
where there is a a high probability (>70%) for more than 4 inches and the
potential for up to an additional foot of snow. Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for parts of Colorado this morning, with Winter Weather
Advisories spanning from central Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle in order
to account for light snow and/or light freezing rain/drizzle. 

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are also expected to impact
a large area along and north of the aforementioned frontal boundary
between the southern Plains and Northeast through Monday. Locally heavy
rain along areas with recently dampened soil may lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding from the Texas Triangle to the Lower Ohio
Valley. Here, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued through early Monday. As an area of low pressure develops over the
Ohio Valley today along the front and progresses northeast, advancing
precipitation across the Northeast will overlap with a colder airmass
entering northern New England. Temperatures are likely to be cold enough
over northern Maine to support moderate snowfall and potentially the first
significant snow of the season. Probabilities for over 4 inches of
snowfall by Monday night are high (>80%) throughout the North Woods region
of Maine. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Meanwhile, the next
low pressure system to enter the Great Lakes within the relatively cold
airmass in place could lead to lake effect snow bands throughout the Upper
Great Lakes between Monday night and Tuesday.

Dry and windy conditions are expected to develop across California today
and produce Santa Ana winds throughout Southern California. Maximum wind
gusts up to 75 mph are possible which has prompted High Wind Warnings to
be issued for parts of the region. These conditions also equate to a
Critical Risk of fire weather due to the potential for extreme fire growth
if a fire starts. Windy conditions should begin to diminish on Tuesday.

The temperature outlook through Halloween includes widespread below
average temperatures over the central U.S. eventually overspreading the
East Coast, with potentially record-breaking warmth remaining over the
southern Mid-Atlantic for a few additional days. Numerous daily record
high temperatures are possible throughout the Carolinas and southern
Virginia as highs so into the mid-80s today before much cooler
temperatures enter on Tuesday. Pumpkins, ghouls, and goblins will likely
wake up to a visit from Jack Frost on Halloween as sub-freezing low
temperatures are forecast to spread as far south as central and western
Texas on Tuesday, as well as much of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php