Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023 - 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023

...Well below average temperatures and record-breaking cold to continue
expanding from the central United States to the Appalachians through the
beginning of November...

...Shower activity to stretch from the southern Plains to the Northeast
today, with accumulating snowfall forecast across northern Maine...

...Snow squalls possible across parts of the Northern Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Great Lakes through Halloween...

...Santa Ana wind and very dry conditions across California will lead to
an increased threat of wildfire activity...

A potent autumn cold front is set to complete its trek across the CONUS by
midweek as it pushes through the Gulf Coast and East Coast states by
tonight. In its wake, well below average temperatures underneath strong
high pressure are located across the central United States and will
continue to slide eastward. Most impacts associated with this late-October
cold are in the form of overnight frost and freezing temperatures. Freeze
Warnings and Watches extend from central Arizona through the southern
Plains and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, where the growing season is
expected to come to an end this week. The coldest temperatures will be
located throughout the central/northern Rockies and northern Plains as
lows dip into the teens and single digits. By Wednesday morning, low
temperatures into the teens and 20s between the southern Plains and
central/southern Appalachians will have the potential to break several
daily record lows. These temperatures also equate to around 20 to 25
degrees below average for this time of year.

This same frontal boundary will spread scattered showers from the southern
Plains to the Northeast today with lingering wet weather over the southern
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. A developing area of low pressure pushing from
the Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf of Maine will help spread a widespread
precipitation shield through the Northeast today that is forecast to
overlap with subfreezing temperatures located over northern Maine. Here,
precipitation will fall as snow and could be heavy at times. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect due to the potential for 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall.

The next system dropping southward from south-central Canada will bring
the potential for snow showers and snow squalls to parts of the northern
Plains today. As this system pushes into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
on Tuesday, additional snow squalls and lake-effect snow is possible.
These squalls may contain high snowfall rates and rapidly reduce
visibility where they impact. The heaviest lake-effect snow is likely to
impact the Keweenaw Peninsula and other area of the U.P. of Michigan,
where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Elsewhere, a storm
system approaching the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night will usher in
locally heavy rain to parts of northwest Oregon and western Washington.
Rain will also impact most of the high elevations throughout the Cascades
as snow levels rise above 8000 ft.

Santa Ana winds are expected to continue impacting much of Southern
California today as strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin and
Rockies. Maximum wind gusts up to up to 70 mph are possible, which has
prompted High Wind Warnings throughout the region. Dry vegetation and low
relative humidity will also combine to produce Critical fire weather.
Residents and visitors are advised to use extreme caution with anything
that can spark a wildfire.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php